Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
416 PM EDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Synopsis...
a cold front will slowly move south of the region tonight...with
any lingering showers or thunderstorms ending. Our weather will
improve for Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure settles in
with dry and pleasant conditions. Generally fair
conditions...along with a gradual warming trend...is expected for
Friday and Saturday.
&&
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
as of 415 PM EDT...the cold front...and accompanying line of
showers and thunderstorms...continues to sag very slowly southward
across southeast New York state and western CT. Although the main boundary and
strongest thunderstorms have shifted south of the County Warning Area...locally
heavy rainfall continues to affect portions of southern Litchfield
County and Dutchess Colorado. Will need to watch this over the next few
hours in cast cells train across this region...leading to ponding
of water in low lying...poor drainage/urban areas...or any
isolated flash flooding.
Further north...some spotty light showers/sprinkles remain...and
will retain slight chance probability of precipitation to areas across central Berkshire
Colorado...west into the eastern Catskills...with high chance further S and
east. Will also keep mention of thunderstorms...possibly with heavy
rain across far southeast areas for another 1-3 hours.
Otherwise...we expect the showers across far southeast areas to
linger through this evening...before gradually ending around or
after midnight. Elsewhere...clouds should gradually thin/clear out
from northwest to southeast later tonight. For min temperatures...have sided with the
slightly warmer met MOS...especially given a relatively moist boundary
layer...and also wet soil conditions across the region.
Therefore...expect mins to fall into the 40s across the southern
Adirondacks...and upper 40s to middle 50s across the Hudson Valley
region and western New England...with some upper 50s to around 60
across portions of the middle Hudson Valley.
&&
Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Thursday night/...
Wednesday-Thursday nt...high pressure will build across the region during this
time frame...with mostly sunny/clear skies. Temperatures will be quite
cool on Wednesday...despite mostly sunny skies. Have sided with the
cooler met MOS for Wednesday maxes...since the NAM tends to handle
shallow cool air masses best. Expect maximum temperatures Wednesday to reach 70-75
in valleys...except for some upper 70s across the middle Hudson
Valley. Wednesday nt/Thursday am mins should fall into the 40s across much of
the north country...with even some isolated upper 30s across
sheltered valleys across the southern Adirondacks and possibly
southern Vermont. Elsewhere...expect mins to fall into the upper 40s to
middle 50s. On Thursday...expect temperatures to warm slightly...with 75-80 in
valleys...and 70-75 across higher elevations. Thursday nt mins should
be a bit milder than Wednesday nt/Thursday am...with mins mainly in the
50s...except 40s across the north country.
&&
Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
for Friday/Friday nt...a weak upper level disturbance is expected to
pass across the region Friday. Moisture appears limited...and upper
level support is not terribly impressive. However...there might be
just enough shallow instability across southeast areas to allow for
isolated showers to form in the afternoon. Maximum temperatures should reach
the upper 70s to lower 80s in valleys...and middle 70s across higher
elevations. For min temperatures...expect mainly 50s.
For Sat-Tue...most global model guidance indicates a warm and increasingly
humid pattern developing during this time period...as upper level
ridging builds across eastern Continental U.S.. diurnal
instability...possibly combined with any weak upper level impulses
passing north of the Great Lakes into northern New England...and
developing low level boundaries could trigger scattered...mainly
diurnal convection for Sunday-Tuesday. The chances for convection
may be a little less on Sat...when only slight chance probability of precipitation are
indicated for isolated areal coverage of convection.
Temperatures will climb to above normal levels...with daytime maxes
mainly in the lower 80s in Sat...then middle/upper 80s for
sun-Tue...with even warmer maxes possible. Overnight mins should
fall into the 50s to lower 60s for Sat am...then mainly 60s in
valleys...with middle/upper 50s across higher elevations for sun am-Tuesday
am.
&&
Aviation /20z Tuesday through Sunday/...
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain and brief IFR conditions
have exited the kgfl...kalb and kpsf areas...and should build toward
kpou after 20z. Some uncertainty as to whether the core of the
heaviest rains will affect kpou so indicating MVFR conditions
between 20z-22z and will amend if necessary. Some scattered lighter
showers in the kgfl...kalb and kpsf areas and putting vcsh for much
of the afternoon for those lighter showers.
Precipitation should end by late evening or midnight...with some
light fog and associated MVFR conditions possibly developing. Clouds
should become scattered later tonight as well which could support
some fog formation. Any fog should lift by 13z and VFR conditions
should prevail after that.
Winds will be north-northeast around 6-10 knots during the day. Winds
will be gusty and erratic in and near any thunderstorms near kpou.
Wind should be light and variable tonight and north at less than 10
knots tomorrow.
Outlook...
Wed-Fri...mainly VFR. No sig weather. Possible late night fog at kgfl/kpsf.
Sat-sun...mainly VFR...slight chance thunderstorms and rain.
&&
Fire weather...
no fire weather concerns at this time due to the recent wet
weather.
A cold front will slowly move south of the region tonight. Our
weather will improve for Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure
settles in with dry and pleasant conditions.
&&
Hydrology...
flows remain above normal for middle June across the Hydro service
area.
Basin average amts through early tonight should generally range
from one tenth of an inch...to one third of an inch across the middle
Hudson Valley and northwest CT...mainly southern Litchfield Colorado.
However...isolated amts may be much higher...especially where any
thunderstorms train over any particular location. This could lead
to ponding of water in low lying...poor drainage and urban areas.
Dry weather is expected to return late tonight into Thursday...allowing
rivers to continue to gradually lower from the very wet weather
the past few weeks.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on
our website.
&&
Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...kl/gjm
near term...kl
short term...kl
long term...kl
aviation...NAS
fire weather...kl/gjm
hydrology...kl/gjm
