Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
1024 am EDT Friday may 24 2013
Synopsis...
cold front will push offshore this morning...bringing below normal
temperatures to the region today. High pressure will build over
the Ohio Valley today...building into the region this weekend.
Cool and dry conditions will continue through early next week.
&&
Near term /through tonight/...
per latest msas surface analysis...cold front has located just offshore
with strong height rises (+4-6mb) over central and western Virginia. Scattered
light to moderate showers...aided by digging upper level
trough...will continue to spread eastward this morning into the
afternoon. Stable...Post frontal atmosphere will inhibit any
chance of thunder. Residual moisture (precip waters ~1.25 inches
generally east of Interstate 95) and the digging trough (uvm) will
maintain showers all the way to the coast. Thus...have increased
probability of precipitation to scattered through middle afternoon. Trough axis will Orient
along the coast late afternoon...effectively ending precipitation
chances. Cloud cover will remain anchored over the local area
through at least middle afternoon...before clearing west to east late
afternoon. Current temperatures are generally in the low 60s inland to
low 70s along the coast. Due to height falls and cloud
cover/showers...expect temperatures to increase only into the middle/upper
60s inland and upper 60s/low 70s along the coast and over NE NC.
This is about 8 to 12 degrees below normal (-1 Standard dev). Northwest
winds will also increase this afternoon to 15 to 20 miles per hour with
occasional gusts of 30 miles per hour...stronger near the coast.
Light northwest winds and clear mostly clear skies inland...will result
in temperatures falling into the low/middle 40s. Warming water temperatures and
cloud cover will keep temperatures along the coast in the upper 40s/low
50s.
&&
Short term /Saturday through Sunday/...
surface hi pressure slowly builds in from the west over the weekend as nwrly
cold air advection flow continues. Continued cooler temperatures (highs in the low to middle
70s and lows in the middle 40s to lower 50s). This is almost 10 degrees
below normal for late may.
&&
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
have gone close to a European model (ecmwf)/hpc(wpc) blend with this period, which
yields only minor changes to medium range forecast. GFS has started
to catch on to ecmwf's slower solution with respect to progress of closed upper
level low over the northeast and Atlantic Canada. This slower
solution allows for a slow warmup through the period. It will also
allow for continued northwest flow across the southern middle-Atlantic Sunday
and Monday. Low (slight chance) probability of precipitation remain in place for Memorial
Day afternoon/evening and again on Tuesday as a weak disturbance/middle
level trough drops across the region while a warm front lifts north
across the Missouri/lower Ohio valleys.
By midweek, the front shunts north of the area. Middle-upper level
ridging rebuilds across the eastern half of the Continental U.S. As surface high
slides off the middle-Atlantic coast. Resultant Bermuda
high/"summerlike" setup will allow for increasing temperatures (and
humidity values) for the middle to latter part of next week. Rainfall
opportunities during this period will primarily be diurnally driven,
with little more than partly cloudy and increasingly muggy
conditions by night.
&&
Aviation /14z Friday through Tuesday/...
lingering pockets of MVFR ceilings (ery/mid) morning prior to cold front
crossing the region. Widespread VFR ceilings (3-6kft) (and windshift to
north-northwest and becoming gusty to 25-30 kt) expected Post cold front and as
middle/upper level trough crosses the region today (lt morning through aftn).
Windspeeds subside tonight...then become gusty again on Sat (w/ VFR
conds contg). Less wind and generally sky clear sun.
&&
Marine...
conds generally below Small Craft Advisory at this time. Winds starting off west-southwest early/middle morning prior
to cold frontal passage later this morning. Watching surface pressure rises (and
associated gusty winds to about 25 kt) from western New York to Ohio River vly) and
expected that to arrive west/ the cold frontal passage after 12-15z/24. Windshift
to north-northwest and increases in spds (due to MDT low level caa) to solid scas (20-30
kt). Occasional gusts to/above gale (35kt) possible on the ocn...will hold off
on any Gale Warning for now though as probability remains low. These conds to
last through Sat as coastal low pressure (offshr) is slo to develop before
moving NE across eastern new eng on sun. GFS/European model (ecmwf) remain in overall
agreement over development and location of that storm off New Jersey/southern new eng
tonight into Sat. Slo/gradual improvement (lastly over the northern ocn wtrs)
by 2nd part of the weekend.
Will start all headlines (scas) west/ new package...and continue through
Sat afternoon/early Sat night.
&&
Akq watches/warnings/advisories...
Maryland...none.
NC...none.
Virginia...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for anz633-
635>638.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for
anz630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Sam
near term...Sam
short term...mas
long term...mam
aviation...alb
marine...alb
