Debate de meteorólogos científicos
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
202 am akst sun Dec 8 2013
Models...models in continue in fairly good agreement with good run
to run continuity. Similarity continues through about 72 hours
when differences in the solutions can be easily identified. Will
lean on a blend of the models for the short term. Guidance is
still all over the place with temperatures but looks like GFS has
been the best with the maximum temperatures while the bias corrected
guidance has worked best for the min temperatures.
Aloft...at 500 hpa...574 dam high center remains over the Gulf of
Alaska and will drift to the south with the top of the ridge being
flattened out as a series of shortwaves moves over the Arctic
coast through Monday. The first shortwave will exit the area this
morning...the second will approach the northwest coast this
morning and be east of Arctic Village this evening...as a third
wave approaches the northwest coast later this evening moving
southeast over the central Brooks range by Monday evening and to
the central interior by late Tuesday. A 556 dam branch of the high
over the Gulf of Alaska will develop over southwest Alaska and the
being Strait by Monday morning...then break off and drifts north
as a long wave trough develops west to east over the interior for
the remainder of the week. At 850 hpa...warm air is in full
retreat to the south at this time with the zero celsius line
extending from Gambell to Northway. Expect temperatures to fall to
4 to 12 celsius below across the forecast area by Monday
morning...and to 8 to 20 below celsius by Tuesday morning. With
weak cold air advection the reminder to the week.
Surface...ridge remains in place over Mainland Alaska but is
showing signs of weakening and retreating to the south. A weak
frontal system extends from Chalkyitsik to Emmonak this morning
and will rotate to lie from Eagle to Cape Romanzof by this
afternoon. Not much precipitation associated with the front but a
few sprinkles will be possible this morning...changing to snow as
the cold air pushes to the south through the day. On the Arctic
coast it looks like a roller coaster day or two as the shortwaves
move across the area bringing some strong gusty winds for a few
hours as well as snow.
Arctic coast...system on the eastern coast is waning as next
system moves into the northwest coast. Timing with the systems
will be the biggest issue. Expect snow and winds with each
one...but not expecting conditions to deteriorate for too long as
the systems move through. With the freezing rain of the past
couple days not much snow to be blown around. Temperatures
continue the downward trend today. Winds will be dependent on the
location of the surface trough. Strong west winds to 45 miles per hour will
prevail to the south of the trough with east winds to 20 miles per hour to
the north of the trough.
West Coast and western interior...some scattered sprinkles this
morning...then isolated snow showers this afternoon around the
front as the colder air works south. A short bout of snow showers
over the lower Yukon Delta Monday evening...otherwise pretty quiet
precipitation wise into middle week. Winds generally light and
offshore through the week.
Interior...a sprinkle of two this morning...then some isolated
snow showers around the front this afternoon...otherwise mostly
cloudy conditions will prevail. As the third shortwave moves
south into the interior Monday night and the long wave trough
develops aloft expect some snow to develop Tuesday morning across
the interior with a couple inches of snow possible Tuesday night
and Wednesday. As the shortwave drops south into the interior on
Monday night expect the northeast winds over the summits to
pickup with some areas seeing winds gusting to 40 miles per hour.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none.
Winter Storm Warning for akz204-akz206.
Winter Weather Advisory for akz203.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz220-pkz225.
Gale Warning for pkz240-pkz245.
Sdb Dec 13