Northern Alaska forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
403 am akdt Sat may 25 2013
Discussion...
models similar through 48 hours and then some differences. The GFS
brings an upper level north from the Gulf of Alaska Sat as does
the NAM and the European model (ecmwf) but the GFS continues it and gives it more
play. However...the 06z GFS run does weaken it substantially more
and even dissipates it in place in the central interior. The only
real reason is that this is of any importance is because of
convective consequences. The GFS would provide a little more
instability to the central and eastern interior in the short term.
The above normal temperatures have began as previously thought.
These will continue for the foreseeable future. This will speed up
break up. Flooding from break up is working its way west as is
alluded to in the watch statements.
A short wave moving north along the West Coast is going to be held
at Bay by the expanding ridge that is building westward. Most of
that moisture will be west of Mainland Alaska. It will skirt the
y-k Delta and then impact St. Lawrence Island. Another wave will
rotate westward from the Gulf of Alaska on Monday and will provide
some more light showers to zone 214 and 215 Monday and Monday night.
500h continue to climb while 850h temperatures climb as well
beginning the first part of the week. This should limit convection
as the air mass stabilizes.
&&
Fire weather...relative humidity values will be low over portions of the eastern
interior this weekend.
&&
Hydrology...break up continues to progress and watches have been
issued for areas on the Yukon river and the Kuskokwim River at
McGrath. Rapid snow melt combined with possible ice jams will give
rise to possible flooding. The Nome and snake area rivers are also
under a Flood Advisory in the Nome area.
&&
Afg watches/warnings/advisories...
red flag warning for akz220-akz223-akz224.
Flood Watch for akz221-akz227.
&&
$$
May 13
