NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
251 AM AKDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT. BUT REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL IS
FOLLOWED...ALL OF THEM SPELL EXTREME HEAT FOR NORTHERN ALASKA ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE MID RANGE MODELS. THERE IS SOME DEVIATION IN
TERMS OF HOW HOT...BUT RECORD BREAKING HEAT IS LIKELY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE MONTH ACCORDING TO ALL OF THE MODEL RUNS.
THE GFS DOES PROPOSE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THEN
RAMPS THE HEAT RIGHT BACK UP TO WHERE IT CURRENTLY IS BEGINNING
MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ON TO SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND BY WED NIGHT. THIS WILL COOL DOWN THE SOUTHWESTERN
INTERIOR FROM ABOUT ANVIK WESTWARD BRIEFLY FROM TODAY THROUGH THU.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE SEWARD PENINSULA
LATER WED NIGHT WITH THIS WEAK TROUGH.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR ON FRI AND SAT. ITS EXPECTED PATH IS FORECASTED
TO BE A LITTLE MORE EASTERLY WHICH WILL SEND A LITTLE COOLER AIR
AS FAR EAST AS MAYBE NENANA OR FAIRBANKS ON SAT. THIS WILL BE A
WELCOME BREAK FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR TO INCLUDE MCGRATH. A
LITTLE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH ON SAT OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
TO ONLY SUPPLY AN INTRUSION OF COOLER AIR FOR LESS THAN 24 HOURS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
BY MON...ALL OF THE MODELS BEGIN TO BUILD THE HEAT BACK INTO
NORTHERN ALASKA AND BY TUE...EXTREME HEAT BACK INTO THE THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE WITH THE MOST EXTREME FROM ABOUT
NENANA EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN OVER
WESTERN CANADA.
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE
TODAY AND THEN NORTH OF FAIRBANKS STARTING THU AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING FRI. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF SEVERAL
LIGHTENING STRIKES AND POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED FIRES JUST BEFORE THE
HEAT TRULY INCREASES OVER THIS AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...NOT A GOOD
SCENARIO AT ALL.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXTREME HEAT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON
THE WHOLE OVER ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA FOR MANY DAYS WITH ONLY A
FEW BREAKS OVER A DAY OR TWO THIS WEEKEND. HEAT IN RECORD
PROPORTIONS WILL PERSIST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FREEZING LEVEL NEAR 12000 FT OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND NEAR 13000 FT OVER SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR WILL ALLOW
FOR EXTREME GLACIAL MELT...HOWEVER IT IS UNCLEAR AT THE MOMENT HOW
THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO RAPID RIVER RISES.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-
AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-
AKZ226-AKZ227.
&&
$$
CF JUN 13
